The Tahrir square in Cairo, Egypt, in 2011. Photo: Wikimedia Commons.
Ten years have passed since millions of people across the Arab world took to the streets to demand political and economic reforms and protest against poor living conditions, corruption and political oppression.
Tunisia was the first country to face the first wave of protests. When Mohamed Bouazizi, a street vendor, set himself on fire as a response to confiscation of his products and harassment by local authorities, this sparked nationwide protests in Tunisia. His death ignitied the revolution in Tunisia, ultimately ousting long-term dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.
From Tunisia, the protests spread to countries like Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen and Bahrain where rulers were either deposed (Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, Muammar Gaddafi in Libya and Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen) or major uprisings and civil wars occurred (Libya, Yemen and Syria).
Ten years after the Arab Spring revolutions captured the world´s attention, it is worth shedding light on some important questions about those historical events:
- what remains of the revolutions?
- what is the legacy of the Arab Spring?
- what can the events teach us about mass mobilization, democracy, political change and revolutions?
The first thing that springs to mind when summarizing Arab Spring is failed expectations, faded hopes and broken dreams. It is true that not all those individuals, groups and individuals that were involved in the protests and uprisings wanted to replace autocracies with Western-style democracies. Nonetheless, many dared to dream about a better future with more political freedoms, less oppression and better living conditions. They sought justice and a more promising future for themselves and their families. People outside North Africa and the Middle East hoped that the wave of democracy had finally reached the region. Optimism grew after the overthrow of Mubarak and Ben Ali. This galvanized people in neghboring countries into action, motivated by the believ that their tyrants were not invincible and could be toppled. Ten years later it is damningly clear that those dreams remain dreams. With the exception of Tunisia, the countries in the region are either run by cruel tyrants or embroiled in violent conflicts with international involvement. Unfortunately, the ideals of democracy and corruption-free leadership remain illusive.
Tunisia has been widely hailed a success story, especially when compared to other countries in the region. It did make a relatively peaceful transition from Ben Ali´s despotic regime towards a participatory democracy with multiple political parties and political competition. It drafted a constitution and held parliamentary elections. Notwithstanding the positive steps that have been taken after the revolution, Tunisia remains a nascent democracy. It is still struggling with significant political, social and economic challenges that force people back to the streets to raise their voices, just like they did in 2010-2011. At least now they have had a taste of democracy.
Egypthada short lived and chaotic democratic transitional period in 2011-2012 when dictator Mubarak was ousted and the country held its first democratic elections in which Mohamed Morsi, an Islamist from the Muslim Bortherhood, was elected president. In 2013 he was ousted in a military coup. Since then, Abdel Fatteh Al-Sisi has ruled Egypt with an iron fist. The military has unchecked power, elections are not free and fair and his regime does not hesitate for a minute to use violence against its critics. Torture, extrajudicial executions and disappearings are commonplace. Freedom of speech and assembly are brutaly crushed. Today´s Egypt is not what the country protesters in 2011 dreamed of creating. Mubarak was bad, but Sisi is even worse. More agreessive and more cruel. Egypt now is led by an even more authoritarian and oppressive regime than the one that governed the country for more than 30 years before the revolution.
People rose up against their oppressors in Syria, Libya and Yemen, but the uprisings descended into civil wars and humanitarian disasters. Assad is still in power notwithstanding the bloody uprising, the loss of his regime´s legitimacy and international calls for his resignation. Russian and Iranian support have been crucial in keeping the tyrant in power. The rest of the international community, notably the West, has lost its interest in Syria. The war is ongoing and Islamist terrorists are still in control of some areas, even though Syria does not receive the same media coverage it used to. The collapse of the Islamic State is one of the reasons why we do not pay much attention to the conflict anymore.
Libya is in chaos and war, ten years after the first protests against Gaddafi began. The war-shattered country never managed to transition into a peaceful, stable and democratic state after the fall of Gaddafi. Instead, the country is deeply mired into internal violent conflicts with rival warlords and governments fighting over territorial control. Not the outcome many hoped for a decade ago.
Yemen is also a war zone. Its longtime president Saleh resigned in 2012, but the situation in the country deteriorated in 2014 after armed forces from the Houthi movement took control over the capital Sanaa. A year later, a coalition led by Saudi Arabia launched a brutal bombing campaign to restore the former Yemeni government. Tens of thousands of civilians have been killed. Millions of people have been uprooted from their homes. This is one of the worst humanitarian tragedies in our time.
Street demonstrations took place in many other countries, including Iraq, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Morocco and Jordan. In Bahrain, demonstrations were violently quelled by the regime. In the other countries, the regimes made some concessions to prevent uprising.
The outcomes of the Arab Spring vary from country to country. Toppling of regimes, elections, rise of terrorist groups, civil wars, increased authoritarianism, entrenched dictatorships and political and economic concessions, are some of the consequences. To provide a full account of the variation in outcomes is beyond the scope of this blog post, but it is true that domestic factors like the relationship between the state and civil society, the stability of formal institutions, the role of the military, the degree of state censorship and choices made by individual leaders, play a role. International factors, like support to leaders and protesters/rebels also affected the outcome.
It is hard to give a complete assessment of the legacy of the Arab Spring. Revolutions don´t necessarily have an end date. They are dynamic processes that start, intensify, slow down, end or flare up again. In the past to yeaws we saw people in Arab countries again taking to the streets just like they did in 2011. The president of Algeria Abdelaziz Bouteflika resigned. Sudan´s long-time dictator Omar Al-Bashir was deposed and arrested. Protests erupted in Iraq, Lebanon and Egypt. The conditions that enabled the Arab Spring did not fade. Political movements against authoritarianism and corruption do still exist. The demands of people for political change and being recognized as equal citizens are still widespread. The sentiments and anger that forced people to protest against their leaders a decade ago never truly disappeared. They want an end to humilation at the hand of their leaders. They want dignity and equality. This is why I believe that the Arab Spring never ended once and for all.
The uprisings in 2011 demonstrated that political transformation was possible. Status quo could be altered when people dared to mobilize. Things did not have to stay the same, for better or worse. The direction of the revolutions hinged upon the local and national context, as I have briefly touched upon just two paragraphs ago. Understanding why some countries are in a democratic transition, whereas others are embroiled in civil war and chaos, requires an appreciation of the specific local, national and international conditions that drove the outcomes in different directions.
Democracy is hard work. Any transition from authoritarianism to democracy is rife with trouble, reactionary forces and the possibility of violence. While most of us wished to see democracy finally take hold in the Arab world, the counterforces to such positive develpments proved to be too powerful. Too destructive. Autocratic rule is the norm in North Africa and Middle East. Islamists prefer religious laws over democracy and secular legislation. On the other hand, we must welcome any step in the right direction, no matter how small it might be. Tunisia proves that it is possible for an Arab country to usher in a democratization process. Sudan deposed its dictator and is in a transition process. Of course, the situation remains volatile and uncertain. No one can predict for sure how the situation will unfold.
A decade ago, young people utilized social media platforms like Facebook and Twitter to criticize their leaders, organize anti-government protests and amplify their demands. The platforms were widely celebrated as important tools in the democratization process. On the other hand, the social media gigants did not make much effort to prevent free speech from censorship. Thousands of accounts belonging to dissidents were taken town in countries like Tunisia, Egypt and Syria. The tech companies also failed to prevent the growing use of disinformation and trolling campaigns by government. Additionally, is should be added that terrorist groups like the Islamic State capitalized on the social media. They used the platforms for recruitment and propaganda.
The Arab Springs is still going on. Hopefully, we will se more welcoming developments in the Arab world. The final chapter is yet to be written.
The Political Scientist 